Saturday, September 4, 2010

Daily Markets - Niall Ferguson: Surprise Tax Cut Could Be In The Cards

Daily Markets - Niall Ferguson: Surprise Tax Cut Could Be In The Cards

Niall Ferguson: Surprise Tax Cut Could Be In The Cards

Posted: 04 Sep 2010 02:07 AM PDT

Congress and the White House may throw a curveball and roll out a tax cut ahead of the midterm elections rather than boost stimulus spending to aid the struggling economy, Harvard University History and Business Professor Niall Ferguson told CNBC.
"Medium-term fiscal credibility is the issue, not short-term," he said. "Paul Volcker should get together with the Republican Paul Ryan and work out a credible plan. Unfortunately there is no appetite for radical … [visit site to read more]

Jobs Report: Improving Tone, But Only Just

Posted: 04 Sep 2010 02:02 AM PDT

The U.S. employment report for August was announced yesterday, comprising the following key numbers (courtesy of Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust):
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.6% in August, virtually steady for three straight months. The unemployment rate was 5.0% in December 2007 when the recession commenced. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009 and the cycle low for the expansion that ended in December 2007 is 4.4% in March 2007.
Payroll Employment: -54,000 in August, matching … [visit site to read more]

Trichet: Austerity Equals Confidence

Posted: 04 Sep 2010 01:59 AM PDT

Prudent fiscal policy will help foster confidence within the euro zone, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet told CNBC.
"We encourage all countries to be absolutely determined to go back to a sustainable mode for their fiscal policies," Trichet said, speaking after the ECB rate decision on Thursday. "Our message is the same for all, and we trust that it is absolutely decisive not only for each country individually, but for prosperity of all."
"Not because it is an … [visit site to read more]

Don Coxe Webcast – Updated (September 3, 2010)

Posted: 04 Sep 2010 01:13 AM PDT

Don Coxe has updated his popular webcast on Tuesday, September 3, 2010 . You can access the recording here or from the sidebar of the Investment Postcards site (the column on the right-hand side) by clicking on Don's … [visit site to read more]

Laugh Out Loud: Jobs …

Posted: 04 Sep 2010 01:11 AM PDT

When Social Mores And Free Markets Collide

Posted: 04 Sep 2010 12:47 AM PDT

I would like to try something different for a change this Labor Day long weekend. In these pages I have been an advocate of examining assumptions so that a modeler can understand the weaknesses of his models. With that thought in mind, here are a thought experiment that I would like to conduct. Bear in mind that there are no right or wrong answers, only better answers about yourself and your world views.

The plight of the Chilean miners
Economists generally like free markets as they … [visit site to read more]

US Housing Dip Deepens As Artificial Support Wanes

Posted: 03 Sep 2010 10:01 PM PDT

The Double-Dip recession I’ve been predicting for some time is deepening. And nowhere is the emergence of this powerful economic force more clear than in the housing market.

All the fresh economic data confirms that home sales are weakening … home inventories are rising … and home price pressure is building.

Meanwhile, we’re seeing a fresh rise in early-stage mortgage delinquencies after a multi-quarter respite. Credit demand is contracting for real estate and other loans. And … [visit site to read more]

Colombia: World’s #1 Stock Market

Posted: 03 Sep 2010 08:16 PM PDT

The chart above shows the MSCI Colombia Stock Market Index, monthly back to 1993 (data here).  Over almost every time horizon up to ten years, the returns for the Colombia stock market are the higest in the world:

YTD: 43.4%
One-Year: 67.2%
Three-Year: 25.1%
Five-Year: 25.8% (second to Indonesia’s at 27.6%)
Ten-Year: … [visit site to read more]
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